The year has started better than expected, with exports and tourism driving the economy, so that the General Council of Economists has raised its growth forecast for this year by three tenths to 1.8%, at the same time while fixing average inflation between 4 and 4.3%. These are numbers that the Council values as "very positive", of "robust growth", even more so when compared with those of neighboring countries, but with important unknowns about the second semester.
Specifically, one of the great risks is that the savings bank accumulated by families, both Spanish and European, during the pandemic has been exhausted and that this has a direct impact on tourism, one of the engines of activity economy during the first part of the year. The savings rate of Spanish families has been reduced to 6.3%. “This savings rate, like the savings rate of European families, is what consolidates the increase and stability of tourism income. When the stock market runs out, tourism will suffer”, said the president of the Council's financial commission, Antonio Pedraza.
Other unknowns that weigh on the second part of the year are the drop in domestic demand, the consequences of the follow-up and the increase in the price of money, which will have an impact on the real estate and construction sectors. In this area, the Council foresees that interest rates will continue to rise, with new increases to try to control inflation in the euro zone, which has risen to 7% in April.
Another element highlighted by the General Council of Economists is the need for an efficient application of European funds. “If we really want to be a leading country inside and outside of Europe, we need to continue to pay attention to the efficient application of Next Generation EU funds, while ensuring that the withdrawal of soon-to-be-expired stimuli - unless extended - is done. at the right time and not before, and think about the possible effect that this is going to have”, said the President of the Council, Salvador Pich.