In the event of a cold winter, Europe will run out of gas reserves. Some shortcomings that would lead to the implementation of restrictions and jeopardizing the supply to homes and industries from February to June.
And, even worse: this situation would make it difficult to fill the tanks for next winter as well, which runs the risk of being icy for the economy, since gas would start to become scarce even as of January 2024.
It is a bleak picture that the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, has drawn this morning during its forecast report.
Currently, Europe and the UK have their reserves at 90% capacity, which would give them some leeway to get through the winter season. But in the event that imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from abroad (USA, Qatar and others) are lower than expected, it would be hard to reach spring with the gas they have stored.
However, if the winter we are about to enter is very cold, then there will be energy shortages. The shortage could start in February and last until June, as we would fall below the 30% capacity threshold set by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to ensure a stable power supply.
In the words of the chief economist of this organization, Álvaro Pereira, we are in the worst energy crisis of the last 50 years. In this sense, there is an indicative data. The percentage of global GDP that is now devoted to energy expenditure stands at 17.7%, a level not reached since the mid-1970s and early 1980s. When those levels were marked then, there was a recession in the developed economies.
A recession that, on the other hand, the OECD rules out for the moment and prefers to speak of "persistent weak economic growth". Indeed, according to the organization's forecasts, world GDP will go from a rise of 3.1% to a more modest 2.2% next year, a slowdown that will be accompanied by "some quarter of falls" in several economies.
When addressing the situation in Spain, the OECD considers that Spain's wealth will close this year with growth of 4.7%, three tenths above the estimate in previous forecasts, published in September. On the other hand, for 2023 growth has been set at 1.3%, two tenths less.
In this sense, government sources welcomed this upward revision for this year, which places Spain "well above" the world growth average (3.1%), the G20 (3%) and the euro zone (3.1%). 3%).
The macroeconomic scenario that accompanies the General State Budget Bill forecasts GDP growth of 4.4% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023, with which this exercise, according to the OECD, indicates that it will be better than expected.
But next year the OECD economists' forecast would be worse than initially expected. Brussels already lowered growth for 2023 to a meager 1% a few weeks ago, while Funcas takes it even lower, to 0.7%.
The OECD estimates that inflation, as a general trend, will decrease in the coming months. But this will be possible thanks to the more restrictive monetary policy that the central banks will implement. In this new context, the agency is already working on a horizon in which interest rates in the main economic areas (euro area and the United States) will be above 4%. For the OECD, we are not talking about an excessive increase, since the fight against the runaway growth of prices has to be the priority.
A final analysis refers to Russia. Mathias Cormann, the OECD secretary general, insists that much of today's economic woes are due to the war in Ukraine. And in this perspective, the former Australian Finance Minister has launched two messages.
One is that the economic sanctions against Moscow, against those who maintain that they do not have much effect, are working: Russia's GDP is on track to contract by close to 10% in two years (according to forecasts made until the end of 2023 ).
And two: the best news for the world economy as a whole would be the end of the conflict. A cessation of warlike hostilities would mean increasing world GDP growth by three tenths and cutting inflation by four tenths. But for this to happen, a long winter will have to be overcome.
