Although the phrase did not actually come from Bill Clinton's mouth, but rather from someone from the protocol team that accompanied the American president on his visit to Spain, the proclamation that Granada has "the most beautiful sunset in the world" became a excellent tourist attraction and for 25 years it has attracted millions of tourists from all over the world to the Andalusian city. Today it will be the European leaders who visit it, but not in search of the famous sunset, but rather a new dawn. Pushed by events and much sooner than expected, the European Union is looking towards the prospect of carrying out its great enlargement to the east, the last, the definitive one, to extend its borders to Russia.
For two days, the heads of State and Government of the Twenty-Seven will speak in depth for the first time about the decision to open the doors of the club to new countries as well as its economic, political and institutional implications. Today, there are no doubts about the destination (European leaders plan to decide in December to open accession negotiations with Kyiv), but there are doubts about how to embark on the journey towards a Union of up to 36 countries. In addition to Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and six Western Balkan countries are also waiting their turn to enter. At different stages of the accession process, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Serbia and Kosovo are upset by the favorable treatment of Kyiv, but, at the same time, hopeful about progress.
“Enlargement is a geostrategic investment in the peace, security, stability and prosperity of our continent,” states the draft of the Granada declaration that European leaders will debate tomorrow during the informal European Council convened by the Spanish presidency. “An enlarged Union will be a safer and more prosperous EU,” insists the text, which warns that both current and future EU member states “must be prepared.” Thus, while the candidates must accelerate reforms to meet the accession criteria, the Twenty-Seven “must carry out the necessary internal work” so that the EU is ready to receive them, the document emphasizes.
Beyond the small detail that currently the most important candidate in political, economic and population terms, Ukraine, is defending itself from the war launched by Russia, the implications of going from 27 to 36 states are capital. Until now, no figures had been circulated on the cost of the operation, but an internal report prepared by the General Secretariat of the Council this summer and published 24 hours before the start of the summit by the Financial Times newspaper raises the additional cost to 256.8 billion euros. of enlargement in the next common budget.
The amount cited simply results from projecting the current structure of the community budget to an EU with 36 countries. Thus, if the distribution criteria and keys were kept unchanged, which no one is considering doing, Kyiv would suddenly become the largest beneficiary of the common agricultural policy and the cohesion policy, to the detriment of course of the rest of the partners. “All member states will have to pay more and receive less from the EU budget. Many countries that are net beneficiaries today will become net contributors,” the study states.
But the consequences of the great expansion would not only be economic. The impact will be evident in the composition of the community institutions (is it reasonable to think of an EC with 36 commissioners? How many seats would the EP of the future have?), but above all in the ability of the EU to make decisions. If with 27 countries it is difficult to achieve the unanimity required for decisions on foreign policy or taxation, with 36 delegations the risk of paralysis is even greater.
The war in Ukraine changed everything, and for the first time in two decades France and Germany have a common position in favor of enlargement. Emmanuel Macron has left behind the traditional French reluctance to the process, but demands, like Olaf Scholz, that before taking the step the EU be thoroughly reformed from within, changing the treaties if necessary to ensure that the club will continue to function. with more than thirty members. Paris also insists on the idea of an EU of concentric circles, where some countries (the core would be the current Schengen zone) go further than others in integration.
Other countries disagree with this approach. Some, because they do not see it necessary to embark on such a risky journey, as has been demonstrated in the past with the tortuous ratification of the Maastricht, Nice or Lisbon treaties. Others, because they distrust and believe that opening this debate is nothing more than a ruse to postpone enlargement. Nor does the idea of a “progressive accession”, in phases, to the EU proposed by several European leaders raise unanimity, although it is proposed so that countries gradually incorporate themselves into community policies without having to wait to be ready at all. the fronts.
“It would be a crucial mistake if reforms were not carried out on our part before the next enlargement”, because this will only make sense for the new ones “if the EU is efficient”, said the President of the European Council in a speech in Bled, Charles Michel. In his opinion, however, we should not directly propose changing the treaties but rather first think about “what we want to do together, how we make decisions and with what resources,” as he suggests to European leaders in his letter of invitation to the summit.
The informal summit of the European Council does not begin until tomorrow, but the leaders of the Twenty-Seven are already in Granada. Under the Spanish presidency, today the third meeting of the European Political Community is being held, a forum created in the heat of the war in Ukraine and to which fifty countries are invited, practically the entire eastern neighborhood of the Union except Russia. There are the 27 that are EU partners; ten who aspire to join the club (the nine mentioned above plus Turkey); one, the United Kingdom, which has abandoned it; several that have ruled out being so (Norway and Iceland), and other peripheral ones such as Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The EU hoped that the Grenada meeting would allow the leaders of these last two countries to negotiate the final stretch of an agreement on their common border, but yesterday the Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, frustrated hopes of progress towards peace between the two countries by canceling his presence at the summit alleging a hostile atmosphere towards his country. Aliyev announced his decision after learning that the Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his great ally, would not attend. Without the leaders of the most authoritarian regimes in the region, the family photo of the European Political Community that will be taken today in the Alhambra will make it a little clearer what the always blurred borders of Europe are.
