Despite the economic slowdown, employment will hold up in November. According to the data advanced by the Ministry of Inclusion, affiliation to Social Security will be practically flat. Specifically, advanced data points to an increase of only one thousand affiliates. For Minister José Luis Escrivá, it is a very positive fact, because November is traditionally bad for employment, as it shows that in the three years prior to the pandemic, between 2017 and 2019, an average of 38,000 fewer affiliates were registered this month .
“It will be a basically flat month. It is very good for November, which is very low seasonally, with years of sharp decline. Whether we look at it from one side or the other, it is very good for November", Escrivá said in the presentation of the affiliation advance d, adding that, as the months go by, and despite the complex environment due to the war in Ukraine, "no there is no indication that any cooling of the labor market is taking place”.
It is true that in 2020 and 2021, jobs were created in November, but this is due to the exit effect of the covid restrictions, which contrasts with the historical series.
On the other hand, in seasonally adjusted terms, November will end with 80,000 more affiliates, one of the highest figures in recent years. Escrivá insists that this increase of 80,000 in seasonally adjusted data is fully consistent with the 1,000 average affiliates, because it is the effect of applying the calendar and season effect to the data, a methodology that he always defends.
The data also indicate that in seasonally adjusted terms, in 2022 as a whole, the employed will grow by almost 4%, a much higher figure than usual. You have to go back to 2006 to see it overcome, and at that time it was with jobs in activities such as construction, which were not very sustainable, and instead, now, according to the ministry, they are quality jobs.
On the other hand, Escrivá has announced that the pension reform will be approved by decree law so that it enters into force on December 1. Currently, one of the points under negotiation is the increase in maximum contributions, which would later lead to an increase in these pensions as well.
Regarding the information about a gradual increase that would reach 30% of the maximum prices, Escrivá has stated that they have not yet defined a proposal. The truth is that this was the position that the Ministry was already defending last year and that it is the one that finds the empathy of the unions and the opposition of the employer. Sources of Inclusion find it very difficult to have the support of the CEOE for this rise in contributions, even after November 23, when the electoral process of the employers is closed, and its leaders have more autonomy of action.
For its part, CC.OO. and UGT have stated that this 30% increase was already raised by the Ministry previously. "It is not new and must be addressed at the social dialogue table", have affirmed the unions, who also recall their favorable position to "increase the maximum contribution bases, with the aim of consolidating the contribution for relative income of all groups"
