"In politics two plus two do not add up to four and, as the question of equality is, taking out three is dangerous; with three we may not add up to reissue the government." This reflection of a member of Compromís is the one that was put on the table at the meeting that the coalition spokespersons had last Tuesday afternoon with the top leaders of the EU to ratify their firm decision to go alone to the next regional elections. For the municipal ones, it was also clear, there will be autonomy for the different groups to make their bets with the added commitment, on the part of the executives, "to try to unblock an agreement."
Compromís defended in the meeting that their data gives them that it is better for the Botànic that the different left-wing parties (excluding the PSPV) go separately. In this way, with the estimates that they manage in the Valencian formation -and that they have not wanted to make public- the sum of deputies of Compromís and of the parliamentarians achieved by the presumable union of the EU and Podem would give more than the sum of the three together .
Electoral data has always cast doubt on the suitability of the coalition. Even with the best results ever achieved, A la Valenciana (the confluence of the three formations) reached 659,771 votes, less than those achieved a year earlier by the sum of Compromís and Podem (673,549) in a general election where they had to add the 111,963 ballots that the US achieved by going alone.
The reasons are various. In Compromís they reiterate that "the voter profile is different." While that of the EU and Podem is more interchangeable, that of Compromís has more differences, they argue.
In fact, the CIS post-electoral studies corroborate that there are voters of one who would never vote for the other, and vice versa. According to these data, there is 17.4% of Unides Podem voters who, "with complete certainty, would never vote" for Compromís.
On the contrary, the number increases even more and there are 19.1% of Compromís voters in the 2019 regional elections who would never vote for Podem and 14.7% who would never place the Esquerra Unida ballot in the ballot box.
To all this, we must add the identity component of a party of strict Valencian obedience. There is 24% of the voters of Unides Podem who "feels only Spanish", a percentage that contrasts with the Valencianist sentiment of the coalition.
The continuous darts that leaders and people close to Podemos have launched against Joan Baldoví, Compromís candidate for the Presidency of the Generalitat, have not helped at all to iron out the existing rough edges. The deputy in Congress has a special chemistry with Íñigo Errejón and that seems to take its toll on him.
It's been months since Pablo Iglesias censored him on networks. Now, due to the statements by the minister and leader of Podemos, Ione Belarra, against Juan Roig, it has been Podem's own candidate for the Generalitat, Héctor Illueca, who has censured the position of Compromís on this issue. A line that Juan Carlos Monedero - a person very close to the Valencian vice president - has also followed, charging directly against Baldoví and Errejón: "Trying to occupy the space of @PSOE is an old obsession that leads to insignificance," Monedero wrote. "With tweets like this, it seems difficult to believe that they want us as partners," they respond in Compromís.
And it seems that the battle in the ideological space to the left of the PSPV has already begun and even the most influential voices of the purple formation are already involved. The pre-campaign is just around the corner and the left-wing parties will have to distance themselves in a few months where a lot is at stake.
