The number of countries moving towards authoritarian regimes is more than double that moving towards democratic systems in the last 5 years, according to a study on the global state of democracy published yesterday by the International Institute for Democracy (IDEA). Half of the 173 countries evaluated suffer democratic erosion.
The study classifies countries into three types of political regimes: democratic (104), authoritarian (49) and hybrid (20). It also classifies democracies according to their democratic performance, based on values such as respect for fundamental rights or the representativeness of governments. The invasion of Ukraine has cost the Russian Federation to go from being considered a hybrid regime to an authoritarian one in the last year.
Half of democracies are experiencing significant erosion regarding civil liberties, government controls, and fair elections. Sometimes, it is the elected leaders who blow up the institutions from within. Brazil, El Salvador, Hungary and Poland are falling sharply, while India, Mauritius and the United States are doing so more moderately.
The latter case is particularly worrying, due to its global impact. "The United States is on the verge of democratic bankruptcy: Republicans are working to discredit the electoral results without any evidence using violence. We see a retreat of sexual and reproductive rights, and the levels of polarization are worse than ever. In addition , the change of administration has not stopped the deterioration of democracy," denounces Kevin Casas-Zamora, general secretary of IDEA.
Authoritarianism is solidified in the Asia-Pacific region, where only 54% of the population lives in a democracy and almost 85% of them live in a weak or receding democracy. In addition, authoritarian regimes have increased repression. Rising tensions in Taiwan and the suppression of democracy in Hong Kong make China, which has the world's second-highest GDP, one of the main challenges to global democracy.
"The price authoritarian leaders pay today is much less than before. In addition, Western democracies have been weakened by mistakes made in events such as the Iraq war, the 2008 financial crisis and the experience with Trump in the United States," he says. Casas-Zamora, thus explaining why 46% of democracies in Europe have suffered deterioration in the last 5 years.
The erosion of democratic systems in the West and their inability to meet social demands pave the way for leaders like Xi Jinping. "Liberal democracy today has competitors from credible forms of government that it did not have 30 years ago. That is why today China is sending the message, very consciously, that its model of government is superior and that it is a credible model of development. that hopefully other countries will adopt. This message is very attractive for developing countries", declares the general secretary of IDEA.
The war in Ukraine, climate change and the pandemic continue to test the response capacity of governments around the world. A study published by The Economist in 2021 shows that the management of the pandemic had -and has- a negative impact, seriously weakening democracy and freedom.
The People's Republic of China, with its 'Covid zero' policy, cites its management of the pandemic as proof that its political system is superior to democratic models. But the wave of protests unleashed this weekend in the most important cities of the country poses a challenge for the Jinping government.
"Some believe that an authoritarian system like China's is much more effective at making decisions in times of crisis. Of course, if you don't consult anyone, making decisions is quicker and easier. But the propensity for error is much higher. In addition, these systems do not have the ability to self-correct," says Casas-Zamora.
"In a democracy, every 4 or 5 years you can change the course of policies. In an authoritarian country like China it's like playing roulette: you can play Lee Kuan Yew, and you'll do very well, or you can play Pol Pot, and it's going to be very bad for you; you may be locked in the room with him without the possibility of correcting the course", concludes the general secretary of IDEA.
The number of protests around the world has more than doubled between 2017 and 2022. The study includes the protests carried out by women against 40 years of "theocratic dictatorship" in Iran, the fight against the repression in Myanmar after the coup of State and the controversy derived from the complaint for the violation of human rights of foreign workers in the Qatar World Cup, which began last week.
