Chinese communists will give their approval to a third term of Xi Jinping

Security in the streets, propaganda on the walls and green codes to shield themselves from the coronavirus.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
15 October 2022 Saturday 22:31
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Chinese communists will give their approval to a third term of Xi Jinping

Security in the streets, propaganda on the walls and green codes to shield themselves from the coronavirus. In Beijing, everything is ready for the start of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party (PCCh), the meeting that every five years reconfigures the leadership of Chinese power. The tradition of previous congresses establishes that Xin Jinping, after having served two five-year terms, hand over power to his successor. However, without a clear dolphin in sight, it is taken for granted that the current Chinese president will continue to lead for at least a third term as secretary general, which will establish him as the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.

The meeting will start on Sunday in the Great Hall of the People in the presence of 2,300 delegates from all corners of the country. During the inauguration speech, broadcast live, the president will outline the priorities for the next five years in key areas such as the economy, the future of Taiwan or the covid-zero policy.

Xi is an authoritarian leader who over the past decade has steadily amassed power and promoted his allies while sidelining opposing factions. His renewal is taken for granted since in 2018 he eliminated the legal limit of two maximum terms that Deng Xiaoping had established to strengthen the collegiate leadership. It remains to be seen if he will keep all the positions he holds, what changes he introduces in the constitution or if he recovers honorary titles from the Maoist era as leader of the people.

Beyond his permanence, attention will also be focused on the rest of the figures that will accompany him at the top of the party. In previous congresses, some rules such as the retirement age (68 years) or the leaks of the different factions fed clues to possible appointments and replacements. This is no longer the case, and the pools only agree that those chosen must have, above all, the approval of the leader. “The selection ... will be decided this time mainly by Xi. The old norms and rules no longer apply,” wrote Cheng Li, a specialist on the Chinese elite at the Brookings Institution.

One of the questions is to know who will be the future prime minister. The current one, Li Keqiang, is a pragmatic technocrat whom Xi has cornered during these years, although he has regained some prominence in recent months due to the economic problems generated by the zero covid policy. Months ago, the premier announced that he will not continue in office after completing his two terms in March 2023, although he could remain on the permanent committee.

Among those best positioned to replace him, two names stand out: Vice Prime Minister Hu Chunhua and the president of the consultative conference Wang Yang. The first, 59, has a brilliant career in his favor in regions such as Tibet, Inner Mongolia or Guangdong and a prominent role in the campaign against extreme poverty, although his closeness to the previous president Hu Jintao could work against him. Others argue that Wang, 67, the party's current No. 4, may have earned the leader's trust after keeping a low profile and serving him loyally for the past five years.

Another focus of attention will be on the appointments of the permanent committee, the group of seven most powerful men in the country (including the president and the prime minister). Xi could try to fill the vacant positions with men of his ranks, including the head of the CCP in Chongqing, Chen Min'er; his secretary, Ding Xuexiang; or the head of the party in Shanghai, Li Quiang, on whom his criticized handling of the coronavirus outbreak in spring weighs.

If nothing fixes it, the appointment will also mean the final goodbye to Yang Jiechi (72 years old), the highest representative of the PCCh's foreign affairs and a key figure in the management of relations with the United States. Other notable figures leaving are Liu He (70 years old), a highly valued economist who has had to deal with the trade war with Washington, or Sun Chunlan (72 years old), the only woman in the politburo (25 members) with a leading role during the management of the pandemic.

The changes in the leadership will be announced next Sunday, when the president makes an appearance on the red carpet, followed in order of importance by the members of the new nucleus of Chinese power. "How this reorganization unfolds will allow a much better assessment of Xi's ability to address the problems of leadership unity, socio-political stability, economic development and foreign policy in the coming years," Cheng said.

Regarding the future, analysts agree that Xi is here for a while, and warn that the absence of a clear successor could be a source of instability and bloody internal disputes. "If something happens to you while you're in office, there's a risk of irregular succession resulting from power struggles," says Professor Andrew Nathan of Columbia University.