On the surface there are slight readjustments. Seismic movements are perceived below.
The United States has not even begun to digest the result and consequences of Tuesday's legislative elections. Among other things, because the counting of votes is still going on and the distribution of the Chambers was still up in the air yesterday, although with the prospect of a minimal Republican victory in the House of Representatives and great possibilities that the Democrats will narrowly maintain control of the Senate. But, although the country is still chewing through the process, the midterms already offer signs of an imminent change of cycle in the nation that, being the mirror in which the entire West looks at itself, may affect the rest of the world.
The most important signal is in the direction and amount of the youth vote, that is, of the social fringe that represents what is new in the present and what is essential in the future of the American power. The president said it in his appearance on Wednesday: we must thank the result, he pointed out, to the massive vote of some young people concerned about climate change and armed violence, among other issues not so attended by their elders. The data supported the words of Joe Biden. According to the first estimates of the demographic institutes, Americans between 18 and 29 years old are the only age group that voted mostly Democrat on Tuesday.
Specifically, his support for Biden's party was 63%, compared to 35% who supported the Republicans. And for black and Latino youth, progressive voter turnout rates reached 89% and 68%, respectively. In addition, youth participation, even at a modest 27%, was the second highest in the last 30 years, only behind the "historic" 31% here in 2018. And their ballots represented 12% of the total.
In short, the new generations tipped the balance of the legislative elections and were decisive in stopping the announced red tide of votes, so called because of the color of the Republican Party.
The generational shift at the base of the electorate forces us to look at the possibilities of generational change at the top of the parties. And more so in a country whose president is about to turn 80 and whose opposition leader, Donald Trump, is 76. The president of the House of Representatives and third authority in the country, Nancy Pelosi, is already leaving at 82 – especially because of the slim chances that his party will retain control of that chamber – and the head of the Republicans in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, did 80 in March.
Does the president plan to run for office in 2024 despite what the polls say? Biden was asked on Wednesday. An exit poll had just produced the data of 67% of voters who do not want him to run for re-election. But the president said that will not influence his decision. “Look at me!” He responded with the conviction – as is known from previous responses – that he is in perfect shape to carry on for the remaining two years of his first term and another four for a second. Biden added that his idea and that of those around him is to present himself but that, after talking about it "as a family" this Christmas, he plans to make the decision in early 2023.
As for Trump, more energetic than anyone, not to say volcanic, his plan seems to be to announce his candidacy for the presidential elections on Tuesday. He doesn't care that many of his bids for key seats in both Houses and equally crucial governorships have failed. Nor that his advisers advise him to wait at least for all the results to be confirmed. He does care, but not to discourage him, but because it seems disloyal that the recently reelected and triumphant governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, who won his opponent by 20 points and is 44 years old, can unseat him from the leadership of the party and from the presidential candidacy itself.
Trump maintains strong support in the Republican base. But his problems with the law could blow up in his face at any moment. And the voters, as a whole, have sent him a message of change of cycle that also seems to imply a punishment for certain extreme attitudes, although that is not the case, for now, with respect to the ultra DeSantis.
Meanwhile, the Democrats yesterday won a Senate seat in Arizona – that of retired astronaut Mark Kelly – which puts them on the verge of the 50 they need to continue to control the House. Voting projections in Nevada, where 4% of the votes remained to be counted, pointed to a likely victory for Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto over Republican Adam Laxalt. If that victory were confirmed, Biden's party would not need the seat in contention in Georgia – where the two contenders will go to a second round on December 6 – to maintain their dominance of the Senate. However, a double victory for Cortez against Laxalt in Nevada and for Raphael Warnock against Herschel Walker in Georgia would represent an unusual Democratic advance in the Upper House in a first-term midterm. Even if they lose the Lower House, as they fear will happen, Biden's could end up proclaiming a partial but showy blue wave in Congress. What Trump lacked.
