The European Commission considers that the Spanish budget “is in line” with its recommendations, although Brussels' analysis is based on the extension of the accounts, and warns that the fiscal situation is “very difficult” due to the excessive deficit and a debt elevated. Therefore, it requests that the Government send a new draft “as soon as possible.”
According to the analysis of the European Commission, and as the economic forecasts published last week warned, Spain will exceed the deficit target, with 3.2% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, according to current data. In this sense, community sources believe that “the main message” is that the fiscal situation is “very difficult.” Precisely because of the deficit, which will be above 3%, risking the opening of a file. The tax rules have been disabled since the pandemic, but starting next year they will be back in force, pending the approval of a review, which is still being negotiated.
The Commission's warnings are also due to the "very high" debt, according to Executive sources. The debt will be 107.5% in 2023, and 106.5% in 2024, well above the 60% threshold.
With the coalition government already formed, the Ministry of Finance, once again led by the minister and vice president, María Jesús Montero, must present a new budget plan as quickly as possible. To begin with, accounts must balance that exceed the 4.1% deficit planned in 2023 by the Commission; to 3% for next year. This is an adjustment of more than 10,000 million, something that was already anticipated with the elimination of aid derived from the energy crisis, which will practically all expire at the end of this year.
However, transport aid, already provided for in the extension, will be maintained. The reduction of food VAT will also continue, as announced by the president of the government, Pedro Sánchez, in his investiture speech. In the latest recommendations of the Executive, last May, the European Commission recommended that, at most, Spain did not exceed a spending limit of 2.6%.