By surprise and without explanation, China decided at the last minute to postpone until further notice the publication of the growth figures for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter and other economic indicators. The unusual blackout raises doubts about the state of the economy at a time when the 20th congress of the Communist Party (PCCh) is being held, where Xi Jinping will revalidate the position for a third term.
The Chinese economy is going through delicate times. It is experiencing a strong crisis in the real estate market, which represents 30% of GDP, with the sale of homes and prices that have been falling for months and half-finished promotions with the works paralyzed due to lack of funds. To this must be added the effects of the zero covid policy, which cause restrictions that affect industry, consumption and trade with the rest of the world.
The effects of the covid were noticeable in the closure of Shanghai and other major cities, which reduced Chinese GDP to a bloodless growth of 0.4%, the worst figure since the interruption of the pandemic. For this third period of the year, an increase of around 3.4% was expected.
For some analysts, the delay in the publication is indicative of a poor evolution of the economy in a sensitive period for the Chinese leadership. “It is likely that it is to hide the noise that these statistics could generate. In the middle of Congress, it would send the wrong signal to the markets and make things volatile, ”says Iris Pang, ING chief economist for China.
The postponement also intends that nothing interferes with the renewal of the secretary general. "Nothing, not even the publication of GDP data, can disturb Xi Jinping's coronation," says Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist at Natixis.
Data hiding does not only affect GDP. On Friday, the General Administration of Customs did not give international trade data for September. The National Statistics Office has also delayed the dissemination of real estate indicators and retail sales.
The doubts generated by these delays contrast with the positive messages that come from Beijing. This Tuesday, Prime Minister Li Keqiang assured the state agency Xinhua that the national economy "is trending upwards and is recovering."
The number two of the Chinese hierarchy, who will leave office in March, assured that the application of policies that promote growth will serve to keep the country's activity in "a reasonable range." Li Kegiang advocated "properly improving and expanding" and insisted on his commitment to "reform and opening up", a formula sponsored by Deng Xiaoping, the father of China's spectacular development over decades.
Against the 5.5% growth target set by Beijing at the beginning of the year, forecasts are now much less optimistic. In its latest analysis, the International Monetary Fund lowered the growth forecast for China to 3.2% and the World Bank placed it at 2.8%.
In his Sunday speech, Xi defended the importance of an open economy and his opposition to protectionism and the imposition of "unilateral sanctions and control tactics", in an accusatory message to the United States.
However, those words clash with some of his policies. During his decade in command, Xi has strengthened the role of the CCP in the economy, with a greater presence of its members in the private sector, the search for greater self-sufficiency and new regulations that have affected sectors as important as technology. : Tencent, Alibaba, Didi or Meituan.
“There are no signs that the zero covid policy will be relaxed or that large stimulus will be introduced, while Xi will continue to press for the Party to supervise all key areas of the economy,” a Capital Economics report on the XX has ventured. congress.
