Another survey revalidates the Botànic but already places the PP as the most voted force

A new published survey reveals the maximum equality between blocks that has been experienced in the Valencian Community since the beginning of the legislature.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
09 October 2022 Sunday 03:31
8 Reads
Another survey revalidates the Botànic but already places the PP as the most voted force

A new published survey reveals the maximum equality between blocks that has been experienced in the Valencian Community since the beginning of the legislature. The Gesop survey on the occasion of October 9 for the Prensa Ibérica newspapers (1,510 interviews carried out from September 20 to October 1) indicates that the Botànic Government could be revalidated with numbers very similar to those achieved in the elections of three and a half years ago.

However, the survey introduces some variable that could endanger the continuity of the executive of PSPV, Compromís and Unides Podem. The poll shows a strong growth of the PP, which it already places as the first political force with 30.2% of the votes and between 33 and 35 seats. It almost doubles the 19 parliamentarians of the last regional elections after gobbling up most of the Ciudadanos vote, which is far from 5% and sees its 18 seats evaporate.

This result is not trivial because the Valencian electoral system rewards the party with the most votes in each province and gives it a cushion of deputies that can end up being key in a scenario of maximum equality. For now, however, this growth is not enough.

The right is still far from governing (48 deputies in the highest bracket; the absolute majority is 50), since Vox does not grow as much as in other polls and remains at 13 parliamentarians; now it has 10 representatives in Les Corts. The polls that have predicted the change of cycle these months pointed to a greater growth of Santiago Abascal's party.

On the other side, the Socialists would increase in voting intention and would go from the current 27 seats to 31-32. All the surveys published to date show a growth in the party led by Ximo Puig, which has established itself as a benchmark for the left. The same survey, placed the Valencian president as the best valued politician.

This growth together with the good performance of Compromís (which would lose between one and three seats) would help maintain the left-wing government. The Valencian coalition - to which all the polls give a certain setback - seems to have recovered from the blow caused by the departure of its great leader, Mónica Oltra. When the poll was being carried out, Joan Baldoví announced his intention to be the Compromís candidate for the Generalitat Valenciana.

For the formula of the left to be repeated, it is necessary, yes, for Unides Podem to be in Les Corts Valencianes. The Gesop survey places it within the hemicycle with 5 deputies and 6.1% of the votes. Most polls keep the purple ones above the electoral barrier of 5%, although it remains to be seen if Podemos and Esquerra Unida finally go to the elections together.

And it is that the tonic repeats another survey. The polls that give the Botànic the winner do so by keeping Compromís with a good result and Unides Podem within Les Corts (the growth of the PSPV appears in all the studies); while those who predict a change of government are betting on a large rise in Vox; that of the PP is also taken for granted in most demoscopic works.

It is precisely in these terms that another survey published today by El Español moves. This Sociometric survey does predict the defeat of the left. The PP would not get a better result than in Gesop's, but Vox's rise to 17-18 seats would tip the balance. A change that would be possible, in addition to the rise of the extreme right, due to a greater drop in Comrpomís that would remain at 12-13 parliamentarians