There are not enough qualified young people for the labor demand of the future. This phenomenon, not exclusive to Spain, is posing a challenge for governments that are competing globally to attract trained young people and are investing intensively in the training of the immigrant population.
This is one of the conclusions inferred from the new and extensive report of the Observatory of Vocational Training in Spain 2023, promoted by CaixaBank Dualiza, in collaboration with the Basque Institute of Competitiveness Orkestra, and directed by researchers Juan Pablo Gamboa Navarro and Mónica Moso Díez. In this edition it is focused on FP in the face of social challenges.
This report, one of those that deals in greater depth with the situation of vocational training, was presented this morning by José Ignacio Goirigolzarri, president of CaixaBank, who stated that between now and 2035 there will be close to 4 million new employment opportunities for FP technicians. This makes it necessary, in his opinion, that this educational modality has sufficient tools to be able to provide the labor market with professionals with the appropriate skills.
Goirigolzarri has also considered that training and employment constitute "the main factor of social cohesion and the best means to fight against inequality in our society."
Projection of labor needs
In total, FP and others, future job opportunities are estimated at 14 million. Of these, 27% are from FP. According to the report, eight out of ten jobs are replacement jobs, due to retirements, and the rest are newly created opportunities. The projections indicate that they will be related to the major vectors that will condition the economy such as digitalization, sustainability and demographics (for every 100 young people under 16 years of age there will be 190 people over 65 years of age).
Specifically, of the 20 sectors cataloged by the National Classification of Economic Activities (CNAE), all will have a higher proportion of vocational training technicians than they currently have, with the exception of the construction sector - the 24.6% they occupy on a daily basis. Today, vocational training technicians will go to 23.1% -, Electric energy, gas and steam - from 26.6% to 20.3% - and extractive industries - from 17.1% to 15.6%.
On the opposite side will be sectors such as the manufacturing industry where the presence of vocational training technicians will grow to represent 40.8% of all professionals who will work in that sector, a similar figure that will also be reached in health activities and other services.
Labor demand
On the other hand, youth unemployment, currently at 29.8%, is closely linked to those who only have ESO (40%) and those of foreign origin (31%) (and reaches dramatic figures for people with some kind of disability, 59%).
In 2033, 24% of the population will be of foreign origin, basically immigrants. And this will be a growing trend.
In fact, currently, three out of every ten young people between 25 and 35 years old are already from outside the country.
The report investigates what the training of these immigrants is like and whether they are prepared to occupy qualified jobs that are needed in the future. The answer is no. On the contrary, researchers warn that lack of training entails a greater risk of social exclusion with all the economic costs and social risks that it entails.
In this age group, unqualified young people are one in four, without distinction of origin. But if we look only at the immigrant population, those who do not have any education are close to 40%.
The immigrant youth population is less educated, has higher dropout rates, they do not enter post-compulsory education and when they do, they drop out more than the rest and take longer to graduate when they do. And this despite the fact that FP (the modality most chosen by immigrants) is more inclusive than other stages.
Likewise, those who are already working or unemployed tend to receive less training in their profession. "Although there has been a lot of improvement in recent years in scholarships and aid, and it has had an impact on greater enrollment in vocational training, there is still room for improvement," says Moso.
In the 2016-2017 academic year, there were 63,787 foreign students enrolled in Spain. Following the aid programs of the Ministry of Education and Vocational Training, this population grew by 34%, rising in absolute numbers to 85,453 foreigners in the 2021-2022 academic year.
The early educational dropout rate, young people between 18 and 24 years old who have not completed ESO or do not have post-compulsory studies (FP or university), stood at 13.9% in Spain in 2022. For the foreign population it was 13.9%. 27.1%.
In medium-grade vocational training, dropout rates are 40%, but among foreigners it rises to 60%.
Risk of social exclusion
Spain is the country with the highest risk of poverty or social exclusion in the EU. Thus, the European average is 21.6% while in Spain the figure rises to 26%. Above are Greece, Bulgaria and Romania. For the immigrant group, exclusion is a risk for six out of every ten people.
FP, the most inclusive training
The proportion of foreigners in the different educational stages indicates that basic degree FP (a key course for those adolescents who have not graduated ESO and can re-engage in training again) and intermediate level FP are the most inclusive compared to the rest post-compulsory. In Basic Vocational Training, the proportion of foreign students is 15.9% of the total and in middle cycles it is 8.7%, higher rates than the 6% in high school or university. In higher cycles it is 6.9%.
