The Popular Party would win the general elections if they were held today, although the Alberto Núñez Feijóo effect continues to stall, according to a new survey. The popular ones would obtain a 30.5% vote intention -four and a half points more than the socialists- and with an agreement with Vox they would remain one seat away from the absolute majority. Despite the victory, the November poll prepared by Sigma Dos for El Mundo confirms the decline of the PP, after the rise in the polls months ago that caused the arrival of Feijóo to the presidency of the party.
According to the demographic study, the popular formation would get between 132 and 133 deputies, while the PSOE would add 105. Vox grows 0.2% compared to October, but would drop to 42 seats with 0.8% fewer voters than in 2019. The 25 deputies of United We Can (ten less than today) added to those of the PSOE would be far from the 155 that the Government coalition holds at the moment. Citizens, with a 2.2% intention to vote, could stay out of Congress. Más País, Esquerra, PNV and Junts would maintain their results.
This survey was carried out between Monday and Friday of last week, so that the effect of the suspension of negotiations to renew the General Council of the Judiciary does not have a notable effect on the results. On the other hand, the presentation of the Government's budgets has been able to have an impact and the PSOE has slightly improved its numbers compared to the polls of recent months.
The Sigma Dos poll denotes Feijóo's downward trend: it gives him 1.4% less voting intention compared to the poll at the beginning of October and 1.2% less compared to September. This evolution coincides with the loss of support for the PP suggested by the latest barometers from the Center for Sociological Research. In July, the CIS gave the victory to the PP and after the summer it has once again placed the PSOE in first position.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo had a brilliant start in the polls as leader of the popular ones. He injected optimism and went from a 21.3% voter intention in the February CIS to 27.2% two months later. The Sigma Dos surveys also confirmed this rise, even with a comfortable difference over Pedro Sánchez. But in recent weeks this growth has stagnated until it has gone back a few steps, although the data is still much better than it was at the beginning of the year.
The survey released by El Mundo also shows a recovery of the PSOE, with 0.4% more than in the previous study and a substantial improvement compared to September, when the Socialists fell to 24.2% in intention to vote. Even so, there is also an increase in the undecided who in 2019 opted for the candidacy of Pedro Sánchez: they stand at 9.5%, when in September they accounted for 4.3%. The growth of the PSOE is also seen in the latest CIS barometers, although in this case it is more pronounced.
According to the November survey by Sigma Dos, Vox would be the third force, but its global downward trend is confirmed. With 14.3%, although with two tenths more than in October, it is far from the 17 or 19 percentage points that it was awarded in the first half of 2022. United We Can recover slightly in the polls, despite the fact that remains a distance from the current 35 deputies.
