Lebanon and Israel reach a historic agreement to delimit their waters and share the gas

Two countries technically at war and that do not recognize each other, Lebanon and Israel, have achieved this Tuesday, through US mediation, a historic agreement.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
11 October 2022 Tuesday 06:30
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Lebanon and Israel reach a historic agreement to delimit their waters and share the gas

Two countries technically at war and that do not recognize each other, Lebanon and Israel, have achieved this Tuesday, through US mediation, a historic agreement. The intractable maritime delimitation, never agreed, would have been finally fixed, opening the door to a peaceful exploitation of their respective gas deposits.

The imminence of the end of the mandate of the Lebanese president, Michel Aun, and the Israeli prime minister, Yair Lapid, in both cases on October 31, would have been key to closing the agreement. She still wants to end his long political career, while Lapid wants something to present in the November 1 election. "This is a historic achievement that will strengthen Israel's security, inject billions into the Israeli economy and ensure the stability of our northern border," said the Israeli head of government.

Lebanon closes this dispute with Israel at its lowest moment, beset by three years of economic collapse. Israel, which has occupied large areas of Lebanon for decades, has no interest in giving its neighbor the finishing touch and then having to deal with the consequences. If for Lebanon it represents a glimmer of hope to get out of its financial prostration, for Israel it supposes - income aside - displacing Hezbollah, Iran's great ally in the region, from the scene.

The Shia militia party had threatened to rain down shells on Israeli platforms in disputed waters "if Lebanese rights are not respected." Likewise, a certain level of self-sufficiency in energy in Lebanon should reduce the power of clients for Hezbollah, which has been distributing Iranian fuel for free for a year to alleviate its shortage.

The optimism was evident last night, after both parties - who do not negotiate directly - received the final draft from the Israeli-born American mediator Amos Hochstein. After fifteen months of intense negotiations, the agreement puts an end to a long-standing dispute over some 860 square kilometers of the eastern Mediterranean, in which the Karish and Qana gas fields are located, for which a Solomonic solution would have been used .

All the details of the agreement have not been disclosed, but it seems that this would also consolidate the maritime boundary that Israel unilaterally marked with buoys, in 2000, after withdrawing from southern Lebanon, five kilometers north of Rosh Hanikra. Israel, for its part, would have basically accepted the demarcation line historically advocated by Lebanon, rejecting its maximalist post-2021 demands.

In this way, Israel will exploit the Karish field and Lebanon the Qana field, despite the fact that its southern end was claimed by Tel Aviv. Everything indicates that Total, winner of the Lebanese concession, would have agreed to reach a compensatory agreement with the state of Israel, on future income. Today, a senior official from the French multinational has landed in Beirut. Eastern flexibility would have allowed the difficulty to be circumvented without forcing anyone to lower their heads.

In parallel, Israel gave the green light on Saturday to the Energean company, listed in London and Tel Aviv, to test the Karish gas pipeline, not without warning that its exploitation would go ahead with or without an agreement.

The negotiations have been conducted by the Israeli national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, and the vice-president of the Lebanese Parliament, Elias Bu Saab. Both were introducing, accepting and rejecting rectifications throughout the past week.

"We are avoiding a war in the region," Lebanon's interim prime minister, Najib Mikati, said at the time. The agreement will have to go through the Israeli Knesset for review and, in the best of cases, could enter into force the week before the elections. The economic gap between Israelis and Lebanese has not stopped widening in the last three years to the point that the per capita income of the former is already six times higher than that of the latter.

Israel aspires to become a small gas exporting power, like Egypt, in the current difficult context for most of Europe. To alleviate the pressing needs of Lebanon, a few months ago a plan was put on the table according to which Egypt would export gas to that country through Jordan and Syria, after a US guarantee not to incur the sanctions applied to those who have dealings with the Damascus regime.

While the Israeli field is almost ready to start producing - now free from the threat of Hezbollah drones and missiles - its Lebanese twin has yet to get past the prospecting phase.

The agreement on maritime delimitation will shift the focus to the land border, never agreed upon, even though there is a tacit acceptance of the "Blue Line" of the 2000 ceasefire, under the auspices of the UN. The exception is the Shebaa Farms, occupied by Israel.