Some Brazilians asked themselves this on Sunday when they saw the shocking images on television of an attack with grenades and a high-caliber rifle against the federal police, launched by former deputy Roberto Jefferson, allied with the most radical currents of Bolsonarism: Is this the start of the feared armed uprising of the Bolsonarist bases?
Jefferson, an old acquaintance of Bolsonaro, who hired the president's most radical son, Eduardo, as an adviser, was under house arrest after being accused by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of participating in the so-called digital militias, accused of subverting democracy through the production of fake news. The Bolsonaristas consider this a witch hunt carried out to prevent the re-election of the far-right president. Jefferson was indicted last year for "belonging to a criminal organization with a strong digital performance with the aim of attacking democracy and the rule of law," according to the Supreme Electoral Court under its powerful president Alexandre Moraes. He was identified as an activist of the so-called "cabinet of hate" and sentenced to preventive detention, then house arrest.
The former deputy's decision to provoke an incident – he directed insults at a Supreme Court judge, knowing that it would inevitably mean going back to jail – seemed designed to initiate the kind of destabilization that Bolsonaro defends. Jefferson “barricaded himself in with weapons and explosives in an apparent attempt to fuel a Bolsonaro uprising,” said Bernardo Mello Franco, a columnist for O Globo.
However, since Jefferson's attack on federal police officers, who came to his home to take him to jail, there have been no further acts of violence. Three days before the elections, with a narrower advantage for Lula than was expected a few weeks ago, Bolsonarism already seems more focused on the war of its digital militias than on the armed militias. Luiz Eduardo Soares, a former member of the Lula government security team, maintains that “Jefferson coordinated the attack with members of the Bolsonaro campaign; Bolsonaro's first reaction was very ambiguous,” he said.
"But, more than through armed actions, it is more likely that the Bolsonarist activists will try to change the course of these elections with an avalanche of false news at the last moment," explained Soares, author of the book that inspired the movie Elite Troop. about the war between police and drug gangs in Rio's favelas.
After initially defending him, Bolsonaro ended up washing his hands of Jefferson. "Whoever shoots at the police is a bandit," Bolsonaro summed up on Monday.
The digital militias of the hate cabinet, which were considered decisive for Bolsonaro's victory in 2018, are already being used to the full in the final stretch of this campaign. Thousands of false news have been triggered by social networks, forcing more control measures by Moraes. But a dangerous feedback loop of sanctions against Bolsonaro's networks and more Bolsonaro protests over an alleged operation to prevent Bolsonaro's victory is taking place. It is a difficult dilemma to resolve for Brazilian democracy as well as others. Surprisingly, The New York Times agreed with the Bolsonaristas last week in an article headline: “In Brazil, a single man can decide what is said on the internet to combat lies.”
Soares and others expect more difficult moments before or after the elections. “Bolsonaro has repeatedly announced that he will not be defeated if there is no fraud; if he doesn't win, he can report fraud on the same Sunday; and summon his people to the streets,” says Soares. "I would be very surprised if Bolsonaro did not opt for some kind of coup movement before or after the elections," agreed Jorge Chaloub, a political analyst at the University of Juiz de Fora. Whether Bolsonaro wins or Lula wins, there will be destabilization, writes columnist Reinaldo de Azevedo, in Folha de Sao Paulo.
