The economic crisis shakes Biden's plans

It is said that it is difficult to run and tie your shoelaces at the same time.

Thomas Osborne
Thomas Osborne
27 October 2022 Thursday 21:31
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The economic crisis shakes Biden's plans

It is said that it is difficult to run and tie your shoelaces at the same time. Democrats are trying with just two weeks to go until the Nov. 8 midterm elections. But they bump into each other and it is not clear that they will reach the goal well. They have realized, belatedly, that their effectiveness in the last leg of the electoral race will depend on their ability to adjust their core message to the number one concern of Americans: gas and food prices, far ahead. already notable concerns, but now secondary, such as abortion or weapons.

The change in the order of priorities of citizens occurred in the summer and, although it was not noticeable at the time, it was almost more abrupt than the heat wave that devastated half the world in those days.

Between May and June, three major unconnected events had suddenly shaken the US political agenda and altered the social mood. First, the early announcement of the ruling by which the Supreme Court would annul the right to abortion caused the proportion of voters who indicated that issue as "very important" when voting in the midterms to reach 56%, from 43 % of previous months, according to Pew Research Institute surveys. Something similar happened with the issue of the policy of restrictions on the use of firearms, which after the mass shootings in Uvalde and Búfalo rose eight points on the same scale of concerns. Finally, the start of the public hearings in the congressional commission on the assault on the Capitol came to refresh people's concerns about the future of democracy in the country.

The debates that the current situation had imposed on the political class initially favored the Democrats. Most Americans defended abortion rights and greater gun control while obviously rejecting outbursts of political violence like the one on January 6, 2021.

At the end of August, and with the polls in hand, Joe Biden and his team were fully confident in securing control of the Senate and harbored hopes of retaining control of the House of Representatives.

To all this, the prices of gasoline and the shopping basket had skyrocketed like never before in the last forty years. The peak was recorded in June, with a year-on-year rise of 9.1%. It is “Putin inflation”, said Biden in his attempt to move away from his domain that ball that the Republicans so persistently placed on his roof. In July and August, inflation moderated slightly (8.5% and 8.3%) and led to more stable expectations of improvement.

However, in an attempt to rectify the mistake made in previous months when considering the price escalation as a "temporary" problem, the president took advantage of the restructuring of his flagship project for social and environmental spending, originally budgeted at 3.5 trillion and called Build Back Better, to make clear its maximum attention to the problem of prices by changing the name of the plan: it now became the “Inflation Reduction Act”, which it signed on August 16 .

The message, however, was not powerful enough. In September, an NBC poll showed that voters trusted Republicans much more than Democrats on economic management, by 19 points. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Oct. 17 now corroborates that notion by indicating that voters who are most focused on the economy and inflation favor Republicans over Democrats by a ratio of 64% to Republicans. at 30%.

And if in July 26% of voters cited democracy, abortion and armed violence as the most important challenges for the country, now that rate is limited to 14%, while those who highlight the economy, crime and immigration – the issues of the Republican campaign – go from 38% to 52%.

This evolution has led many Democrats and progressives to call for a change of chip in the campaign. “Abortion is important. But should it be 80% of the message? Shouldn't we talk about what most worries the people? In survey after survey we see that inflation and the economy top the list of priorities for Americans,” leftist Senator Bernie Sanders repeats these days.

On Friday, four respected Democratic strategists -- Patrick Gaspard, Stanley Greenberg, Celinda Lake and Mike Lux -- released a manifesto imploring the party to focus more on the economy. “Voters want politicians to solve their problems. Inflation and the cost of living is your number one concern today. They understand it's hard, but if they don't see Democrats prioritizing their everyday costs, they'll be discouraged," they wrote.

Biden traveled yesterday to Syracuse (New York) with the purpose of explaining and selling his government's efforts to alleviate costs to families as best as possible. And with the intention of putting his policies on the matter in contrast to the Republican pretensions to make medical services more expensive and to lower taxes on corporations and the rich, which could increase inflation even more.

While other Democratic leaders such as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, continue to insist that inflation "is there, but it is global and not as bad as in other countries", the US president seems to have changed his mind. registration to pay more attention to what the opinion data and some advisers had been advising. The question about such a turn is: is it on time?