Mobile phones started ringing just after 9 am on October 11 in Taras Shevchenko Park in Odessa. The Ukrainian state emergency service warned of a "high probability of missile attacks" and advised citizens to go to bomb shelters and stay there. Many inhabitants, accustomed to such alarms after seven months of war, continued to walk along the park's tree-lined walkways and enjoy its views of the Black Sea, while others headed for safety. At noon, the Ukrainian armed forces announced the shooting down of three drones in the area. Russian missiles that morning also struck Zaporizhia, Vinnytsia and Lviv, where the city's mayor said they had hit a dam and knocked out part of the power system. According to the authorities, twenty cruise missiles were shot down.
It was the second consecutive day of large-scale Russian missile attacks on civilian neighborhoods and infrastructure, although it was not as severe as the first. The day before, on October 10, Russia launched 83 missiles at cities across Ukraine, killing at least 19 people. Ukraine claimed to have shot down 43 of them, despite still relying mostly on Soviet-era defense systems such as the Buk and S-300, and its surface-to-air missile stockpiles running low. (A video has even circulated of a Ukrainian soldier slinging a MANPAD over his shoulder and shooting down a cruise missile with an anti-aircraft missile.) Modern Western integrated anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems are far more sophisticated, and Ukraine has been pressing the United States and European countries for months to provide them. After the attacks, Joe Biden spoke with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and promised to send him new systems. What kind of air defense equipment could Ukraine receive, and why is it taking time to arrive?
Early in the war, Zelensky asked Israel to sell its Iron Dome system to Ukraine. In fact, as Zelensky eventually acknowledged, such a system is not appropriate: it is designed to stop short-range rockets like those launched by the Palestinian group Hamas and can only cover a limited area. Russia is attacking Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles like the Kalibr and the Kh-101, which evade radar by flying low. It also uses the Iskander ballistic missile and possibly the Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile, both of which are too large and fast for Iron Dome.
Instead, the first Western system to arrive in Ukraine's arsenal will be Germany's new IRIS-T. Ukraine will receive a battery, made up of three truck-mounted launchers carrying 24 missiles (eight per launcher) with a range of 40 kilometers and a command vehicle that can be located up to 20 kilometers away. The system's radar is exceptionally sensitive and will be good at detecting low-flying stealth missiles like the Kalibr, says Denis Smazhny, head of training for Ukraine's anti-aircraft missile forces.
The deployment of many batteries will make it possible to establish a defensive line of up to 100 kilometers in length covering the main routes used by Russian missiles. And, what is more important, the IRIS-T command vehicle integrates in a single information space different sources of radar data from aircraft and ground stations, in such a way that a battery is capable of attacking targets that are not yet go. Legacy Soviet systems such as the Buk and S-300 can only engage objects located by their own radar. Furthermore, those systems locate and destroy targets one by one, while an IRIS-T battery can launch and track all 24 missiles simultaneously, making it much more difficult to be overwhelmed by numbers.
A second system on the way is the Norwegian NASAMS. Like IRIS-T, it integrates multiple data sources into a single information space. It also uses a missile, the AMRAAM, which has been a standard NATO air-to-air combat missile for decades. Existing large reserves make resupply easy. The NASAMS system is in service with 12 countries, including NATO members, and Ukrainian forces have already been trained to use it. The missiles have a range of 40 kilometers, but a newer version will extend it to more than 100 kilometers. When it enters service, Ukraine will be able to use these upgraded missiles without having to replace the launch system.
Biden did not make public what systems he had in mind. Ukraine has been pushing for the main US air defense missile, the Patriot, since the spring. However, "for now, getting such technology is just a dream," says Yuri Ignat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force. Each Patriot battery costs more than $1 billion and requires at least 70 soldiers with months of training to operate. And the United States has no shortage of Patriot systems, says Tom Karako of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.: "These are the results of de-emphasizing air and cruise missile defense for more of a decade."
Perhaps Biden was only referring to accelerating the delivery of NASAMS systems already promised. Germany promised Ukraine the IRIS-T in June. The delivery has been delayed for technical reasons; Ukraine will be able to operate the first such system because production intended for German forces has been diverted in their favor. The first arrived on October 11.
When IRIS-T is operational, Ukraine will be able to improve its kill rate of Russian cruise missiles, estimated today at around 40-60%. However, intercepting the ballistic Iskander is beyond the capabilities of IRIS-T or NASAMS. With a range of hundreds of kilometers, it already tends to speed towards its target when attacked by air defenses. And it's too big for those systems to divert much: the entire IRIS-T missile weighs about 100 kilos, while the Iskander warhead alone can weigh 700 kilos. In addition, it is also capable of maneuvering, which requires larger and more powerful interceptors to take it down. At the moment, in Ukraine, according to Smazhny, "the best protection against ballistic missiles is concrete."
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Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
