In my short but intense trips to Madrid, I have been able to verify in different conversations in political or economic circles how Pedro Sánchez's decision to pardon the independence leaders condemned by the Supreme Court has gone from being censored to evaluating it as a measure that has been positive. The reading that is done today, in general, is that it has contributed to reassuring Catalan political life and the unease or irritation that the procés caused five years ago does not exist in the capital today. It is the same feeling that exists in Catalonia, where Esquerra's exercise in pragmatism has also helped to consolidate this atmosphere.
But Sánchez's work is not quite finished. The reform of the crimes of rebellion and sedition in the Penal Code, which were finalized in the stage of Juan Carlos Campo as Minister of Justice, has not been fully applied. And for Esquerra this is a red line that can lead them to vote against the next government budget. This is a very repeated message these days by the leadership of Esquerra, which has sent the ultimatum to Sánchez by land, sea and air.
The departure of Junts from the Government seems that, in turn, it is going to require the support of the PSC for the Pere Aragonès accounts. The formation led by Jordi Turull is not in the business of saving face for ERC, with which it has just broken its long relationship. In politics, many times, two plus two does not equal four and, although the logical thing would be for republicans and socialists to support each other to approve their bills, Oriol Junqueras' formation is willing to run out of budgets in Catalonia if its demand for reform the Penal Code.
As with Sánchez you always have to wait until the last second, we will have time to see the evolution of this stake. It would not be a surprise if ERC finally achieved a formal commitment from the Government to the agreement it seeks and this coincides in time with a pact between the Executive and the PP in judicial matters. This is called variable geometry and it could be a reality soon, despite the fact that there are only a few months left for the great electoral battle in May.
